At one point in what now seems to be the remote past, it was said that the sun would never set on the British Empire.  In the past several decades, the same sentiment was voiced about America.  But now many are saying that the American sunset has also come and gone, and the sun, with cosmic precision and irony, is rising in the East on China and India.  It is far from clear, however, that America is resigning its position as an economic, military and political superpower and not just weathering a temporary slump.  Even if it does retain its current hegemony, the United States may not yield to the rising Asian stars, but rather join a multi-polar world and share influence with China and India.

Only recently have events seemed to support the idea that the American Century has finally come to a conclusion, or has at least reached its final chapters.  Several weeks ago students from universities around the country, including Penn and Tulane, discussed the government’s bungled response to Hurricane Katrina and its mismanagement of the recovery effort.  Community leaders complained that the flood plain level for building and insurance had not been set, necessary spending for temporary housing had not been authorized (at the time), and long-standing ecological problems stemming from development of the Gulf coast were still ignored.

Although Katrina is one of the more powerful examples of American impotence, the litany of other complaints is quickly approaching the Pledge of Allegiance in often mindless repetition and ubiquity.  The jobless recovery has only recently allowed the unemployment rate to drop below five percent.  Skyrocketing oil prices and increased dependence on Chinese manufacturing vaulted the US trade deficit to over $700 billion last year ($202 billion with China alone).  The budge deficit lags only slightly behind at around $400 billion, and the national debt stands at almost $8.5 trillion.

American political and ideological hegemony have also been severely tested, most seriously by the increasingly unpopular Iraq war.  Other important initiatives have not come to fruition or have been stymied by international opposition: United Nations reform, especially the Human Rights Commission; disarming North Korea; preventing nuclear proliferation in Iran.

But the vibrant American economic and political system has slumped before, only to recover.  In the 1960’s and 70’s, America was burdened by the Vietnam War and a resurgent Soviet Union.  A decade later, it was stagnant economic performance and the Japanese economic boom. 

While, as Thomas Friedman indicates in The World is Flat, the populations of India and China may be more willing to work harder than their counterparts in the West, America remains a young country with an entrepreneurial spirit.  The social welfare system in the US is much less burdensome than in Europe, where economic growth significantly trails America’s 3-4%.

China and India, in turn, have their own economic ups and downs.  Between 1995 and 2002, China lost 15 million manufacturing jobs while America lost only 2 million.  Increasing international pressure to let the yuan appreciate will likely lead to more expensive, and less competitive, Chinese exports.  India’s growth was largely stagnant under socialist policies after independence until Manmohan Singh, Finance Minister at the time and the current Prime Minister, liberalized its economic policies.  Regime change, a frequent occurrence in India, could lead to a reversal.

Political troubles also loom on the horizon for the Asian giants.  Last year China faced increasingly violent riots over land and economic inequality, and in putting them down faced renewed questions about its commitment to human rights.  India’s politicians are currently debating whether to enter into a nuclear participation agreement with the United States; India has yet to resolve the territorial dispute over Kashmir with Pakistan. 

In one industry in particular (besides the military), America outstrips its rivals: higher education.  For the 2004-2005 school year, there were over 550,000 international students studying in American institutions of higher education, the largest proportion being from India and China.  Higher education is America’s fifth largest export.  In this way, as Friedman indicates, America not only stays ahead of the economic competition curve with its large knowledge base, but helps to define it.

Perhaps we have reached the end of American unipolar hegemony, but that does not necessarily mean America will completely resign its post as a world leader.  Instead, it could join China and India as one of the world’s largest and most powerful countries, creating a multi-polar world.  The billion people-plus populations of both India and China may dwarf that of the , but America is still one of the world’s largest countries and thus able to support a strong domestic and international economy.  In addition, America has in a large part created the international financial and commercial world in which it is now competing.  America may be running at a relatively slower pace in its race with some developing nations, but its lead is great enough that it is likely to retain significant influence and leadership in the world for some time to come.